Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 19:46:28

ACUS01 KWNS 191946
SWODY1
SPC AC 191944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may
occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California
Coast.

....Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 01/19/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/

....Discussion...
An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A
semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a
few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold
front moving through the region.

In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly
into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing
Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak
instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this
convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk.

$$

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