Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 12:47:26

ACUS01 KWNS 191247
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and
along the central California Coast.

....Synopsis...
The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast
cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight,
while ridging prevails over the West.  Ridging will be gradually
shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific
approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast.

At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and
the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to
encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies.  While
cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder
potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today
and into this evening.  However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting
weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential.

In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the
period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific
trough and an associated surface cold front.  However, weak
instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection
suggests minimal, if any, severe risk.

...Goss.. 01/19/2024

$$

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