Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 09:51:24 ACUS48 KWNS 190951 SWOD48 SPC AC 190949 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. ...Broyles.. 01/19/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .