Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 08:10:25

FOUS30 KWBC 190810
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024 - 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024


The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024 - 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

Guidance has remained consistently wet now over the past few runs
across portions of northern California and southwestern Oregon.=20
Precipitation is expected to develop across much of the region
prior to Day 2 as a negatively-tilted mid-to-upper level trough
and its associated frontal band move into the region Friday night.
 The models have been consistent in showing a weakening IVT plume
as it moves onshore late Friday into early Saturday.  However,
westerly flow south of the parent low is expected to tap a
secondary surge of deeper moisture and direct into the region as
it lifts northeast along the northern California to southern
Oregon coasts on Saturday.  This moisture along with sufficient
large-scale lift is expected to support an increase in rainfall
rates with moderate to heavy amounts expected beginning Saturday
morning.  The general consensus of the deterministic models over
past few runs suggests amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally heavier
accumulations are likely across the region, with the heaviest
amounts most likely in the upslope regions of the coastal ranges
and the northern Sierra and southern Shasta foothills.  HREF
probabilities suggest that much of this may occur in the first 12
hours, showing high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations
of 2 inches or more from 12Z Sat - 00Z Sun across parts of the
area.  Given the wet antecedent conditions and the move in the
models toward a wetter solution, opted to upgrade this area to a
Slight Risk.=20=20=20

Pereira

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5gzhL1645KUN-V9DuY36fnIY91CD-5Al49EjS7ZOvFGl=
yZ7iUAmuIT46CNvz_CbNFOYP21Y3WR2XS3jEeSsr3oWMlZw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5gzhL1645KUN-V9DuY36fnIY91CD-5Al49EjS7ZOvFGl=
yZ7iUAmuIT46CNvz_CbNFOYP21Y3WR2XS3jEeSsrdNbJLmA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5gzhL1645KUN-V9DuY36fnIY91CD-5Al49EjS7ZOvFGl=
yZ7iUAmuIT46CNvz_CbNFOYP21Y3WR2XS3jEeSsrbzlbd-s$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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