Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 05:27:22

ACUS01 KWNS 190527
SWODY1
SPC AC 190525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and
along the central California Coast.

....South Florida...

Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH
Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the
base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the
latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly
flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface
front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening.

Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the
southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep
updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the
afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any
meaningful risk for severe.

....California...

Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA
Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach
the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated
buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection.
Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely
rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period.
Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels
necessary for lightning discharge.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024

$$

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