Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 19 2024 00:26:51

ACUS01 KWNS 190026
SWODY1
SPC AC 190025

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this
evening.

....South FL...

Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and
appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted
across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County
region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800
J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining
heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not
currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with
lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will
maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the
weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile
observed at MFL.

...Darrow.. 01/19/2024

$$

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