Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 18 2024 16:18:17

ACUS01 KWNS 181618
SWODY1
SPC AC 181616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida today
into tonight.

....Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern
Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool
continental air remains in place across the majority of the country
with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula
in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated
with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the
right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support
isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the
early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager,
40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization,
though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe
thunderstorm threat.

To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central
Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a
surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within
the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high
Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective
showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal
LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these
disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor
mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm
coverage below 10%.

...Moore.. 01/18/2024

$$

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