Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 18 2024 12:01:07

ACUS01 KWNS 181201
SWODY1
SPC AC 181159

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern
CONUS will amplify again as two connected events occur:
1.  Synoptic-scale ridging -- now over the West Coast -- shifts
slowly inland, reaching the interior Northwest and western Great
Basin by the end of the period.
2.  A series of shortwave troughs -- initially evident in
moisture-channel imagery from northernmost portions of ON/MB
southwestward to central/eastern MT -- dig southward to
southeastward and get more in phase.  This will lead to a closed or
nearly closed 500-mb low over Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow.  The MT
perturbation will cross the central Plains to the lower Ohio Valley.

In response to these developments, a surface cold front -- analyzed
at 11Z across Lake Superior, northwestern WI, southern MN, to a weak
low over the northwestern NE Panhandle, to northwestern WY and
western MT -- should sweep eastward to southeastward across the
remainder of the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi Valleys.  By 12Z
tomorrow, the front should extend from a low over WV across GA, the
FL Panhandle, and the central/southwestern Gulf.  This evening and
overnight, thunderstorms should develop in a prefrontal convergence
zone (and perhaps along the front) near the Loop Current, where
air-sea thermodynamic fluxes can yield greatest boundary-layer
theta-e with minimized MLCINH.  However, this activity should remain
west of FL before 12Z.

An area of widely scattered to scattered showers, with a few
embedded thunderstorms, may develop this afternoon over portions of
south FL.  Convection will form in a weakly capped, moist, diurnally
heated boundary layer, near an older frontal zone now just south of
the peninsula.  Activity should move eastward to northeastward off
the Atlantic Coast, followed by an evening decrease in coverage as
the boundary layer stabilizes.  Forecast soundings suggest weak
midlevel lapse rates will keep buoyancy on the modest side -- with
MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, while low-level flow and shear
remain weak.  As such, activity should be too disorganized for a
categorical severe threat.

...Edwards/Dean.. 01/18/2024

$$

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