Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 18 2024 09:15:06

ACUS48 KWNS 180915
SWOD48
SPC AC 180913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough over the western U.S. early in the period will
slowly shift east toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through at least Day 6/Tue. Beyond Tuesday, most medium-range
guidance depicts a mean upper trough roughly over the High Plains,
with a series of shortwave ejecting east/northeast into the
Mid-South/Midwest vicinity Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. This overall pattern
will support long-duration deep-layer southwesterly flow across the
southern Plains, Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast states and the
Mid-South. As a result, Gulf moisture is expected to return
northward, first across the Texas coastal vicinity on Day 4/Sun
before also increasing across much of the rest of the Gulf coast
states the remainder of the period.

Given increased southwesterly flow overspreading returning Gulf
moisture, at least some low-end severe potential appears possible
across coastal TX early in the period. Some severe potential could
then shift east across the Gulf Coast states later in the period,
(around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu) when some guidance shows a stronger
shortwave trough ejecting over the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity in
conjunction with a deeper surface low and cold front.

Severe potential appears too low early in the period to include 15
percent probabilities. Uncertainty in timing and latitudinal
position of the possible late-period shortwave trough also precludes
probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this pattern change could
support increasing severe potential with time across Gulf coast
areas, which may necessitate probabilities in the coming days.

...Leitman.. 01/18/2024

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.