Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 17 2024 12:40:33

ACUS01 KWNS 171240
SWODY1
SPC AC 171239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through
tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic mean flow will be maintained
over most of the CONUS, downstream from a synoptic ridge that will
move over the Pacific Coast around the end of the period.  A cyclone
that moved ashore during the prior overnight period has devolved to
an open shortwave trough over OR.  This feature should deamplify
gradually as it rapidly crosses the northern Great Basin to central
Rockies today, reaching MO and OK by 12Z tomorrow.  Though a flash
or two cannot be ruled out as the associated midlevel cooling/
moisture cross the Intermountain West today, lightning potential
appears too isolated, brief and unfocused to warrant an outlook
area.

Otherwise, troughing over the East will deamplify somewhat today as
a strong shortwave exits the East Coast.  A related/preceding
surface cold front -- initially analyzed from the northern Bahamas
across the eastern/southern Straits of FL -- will decelerate,
weaken, and remain south of FL through the period.  Lightning
potential over land appears minimal at best, and too low for a 10%
areal outline.  Elsewhere, the air mass will be too dry and/or
stable for thunder over the CONUS.

...Edwards/Dean.. 01/17/2024

$$

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