Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 17 2024 09:34:00

ACUS48 KWNS 170933
SWOD48
SPC AC 170932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over
the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the
Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough
develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress
eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established
over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific
coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the
Plains by Day 8/Wed.

Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure
and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico,
will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or
Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and
Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow
across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may
return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the
end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this
moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of
low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper
trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 01/17/2024

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