Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 16 2024 19:50:24 ACUS01 KWNS 161950 SWODY1 SPC AC 161948 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ....Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ...Jewell.. 01/16/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ....Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .