Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 16 2024 00:47:17

ACUS01 KWNS 160047
SWODY1
SPC AC 160045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....FL...
The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes
along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become
confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee
and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will
probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon
guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the
mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused
farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the
early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms
spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield
mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates
coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should
be negligible through 12Z.

...Grams.. 01/16/2024

$$

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