Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 15 2024 22:57:54

FOUS30 KWBC 152257
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 16 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Portions of FL...
A section of the polar front has been edging northward and acting
as a focus for heavy rainfall today near both coasts of the
peninsula.  Near Cape Coral, rainfall estimates per the 88-D so
far have been in the 4-7" range, while across east-central FL
closer to 3-4".  The mesoscale guidance has a reasonable handle on
the east-central FL activity, which should be leaving the FL
peninsula at or just after 00z.  Southwest FL is a place where the
mesoscale guidance has generally failed, but radar trends are
showing somewhat less organization and a slight shrinking in scale
with the heaviest rainfall moving east/inland, implying it doesn't
have too much life left as an organized heavy rain threat.  There
remains a non-zero risk of flash flooding in that area, so it will
be watched, but with the boundary moving northward and radar
trends being taken into account, do not believe it will extend
past 01z/8 pm EDT.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4zLnBYW8SbUV-C-MxKgSuHzAadxyW1w4L1me2XSXMEmC=
bMtedaoUp3X9iwyhjj8IqFSnqKnk0iKK7TlJ82szQOW2XB0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4zLnBYW8SbUV-C-MxKgSuHzAadxyW1w4L1me2XSXMEmC=
bMtedaoUp3X9iwyhjj8IqFSnqKnk0iKK7TlJ82sz6ocLtmg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4zLnBYW8SbUV-C-MxKgSuHzAadxyW1w4L1me2XSXMEmC=
bMtedaoUp3X9iwyhjj8IqFSnqKnk0iKK7TlJ82szFyTbS7Y$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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