Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 15 2024 22:56:24

FOUS30 KWBC 152256
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 15 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Portions of FL...
A section of the polar front has been edging northward and acting
as a focus for heavy rainfall today near both coasts of the
peninsula.  Near Cape Coral, rainfall estimates per the 88-D so
far have been in the 4-7" range, while across east-central FL
closer to 3-4".  The mesoscale guidance has a reasonable handle on
the east-central FL activity, which should be leaving the FL
peninsula at or just after 00z.  Southwest FL is a place where the
mesoscale guidance has generally failed, but radar trends are
showing somewhat less organization and a shrinking in scale
implying it doesn't have too much life left.  There remains a
non-zero risk of flash flooding in that area, but with the
boundary moving northward and radar trends being taken into
account, do not believe it will extend past 01z/8 pm EDT.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ReiCMpy8H1M1NQlomqKOLdTFhOtROLNEOiWPl6FEYmn=
cVAffNKEyNQQDtVDMJh_DwgZ3q8Ao8mW9-0cgocIlJycXI0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ReiCMpy8H1M1NQlomqKOLdTFhOtROLNEOiWPl6FEYmn=
cVAffNKEyNQQDtVDMJh_DwgZ3q8Ao8mW9-0cgocIXmXLhUc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4ReiCMpy8H1M1NQlomqKOLdTFhOtROLNEOiWPl6FEYmn=
cVAffNKEyNQQDtVDMJh_DwgZ3q8Ao8mW9-0cgocISW8URbk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.