Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0068
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 15 2024 17:18:15

ACUS11 KWNS 151718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151717=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-152115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Areas affected...Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 151717Z - 152115Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected
to spread east from southeast Arkansas and northern Louisiana into
Mississippi and northern Alabama through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations, LSRs, and MPING reports over the
past 1-2 hours continue to show a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain from the ArkLaTex region into northern MS/AL within a broad
precipitation swath. Isentropic ascent over a 925-850 mb frontal
zone is forecast to persist through early afternoon as a
low-amplitude wave, currently over the southern Plains, migrates
east. Recent sleet LSRs and forecast soundings suggest that a mix of
snow and sleet will be more likely where surface temperatures are in
the low 20s or lower. Areas where temperatures are in the mid-20s or
higher should have too shallow/warm of a sub-freezing layer to
support much re-freezing of hydrometeors, making a sleet/freezing
rain mix more probable. Forecast guidance suggests that
precipitation intensity may gradually wane heading into the
mid-afternoon hours, but a zone of impactful wintry precipitation
appears probable prior to this occurring.

...Moore.. 01/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-0ClAzeHhtNaoRFDtxAtPXpmgZB_pMHqMRMaHAk2efaNy8R7sp7ZHwIeNc25IExmSA-uVyXOS=
VhiGbZPazwGUzCoW_4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32389370 32969267 34238987 34948780 34978610 34718575
            34368570 33158810 32298989 31939125 31739213 31609304
            31669354 31849381 32109389 32389370=20


=3D =3D =3D
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