Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 15 2024 04:48:40

ACUS01 KWNS 150448
SWODY1
SPC AC 150447

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

....Florida...

Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow
will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a
larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful
low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be
the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period.


Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf
Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the
period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a
focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period.
Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around
600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear.
While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining
longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should
remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024

$$

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