Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0064
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 14 2024 20:50:11

ACUS11 KWNS 142050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142049=20
NYZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Areas affected...Upstate New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 142049Z - 150045Z

SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the
development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The
aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
snowfall rates are expected.=20

To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
band after the 00 UTC time frame.

...Moore.. 01/14/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9IrSE4OuW8G_-nSnCt3gJvHDc7E5VIc4cp4LgiOEZTl3yGuA7CNujlqb2G8CXbqivjubBwoF5=
bdw_G3_uRmsB-aN8tw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
            43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
            43837636=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.