Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 14 2024 09:51:38

ACUS48 KWNS 140951
SWOD48
SPC AC 140950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8
period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly
shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a
series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through
northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the
central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east
across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper
shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over
the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east
across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will
allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality
moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting
severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be
possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri.

In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will
build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on
Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential.

...Leitman.. 01/14/2024

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