Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 14 2024 05:19:10

ACUS01 KWNS 140519
SWODY1
SPC AC 140517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but
a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south
Florida and parts of southern New England.

....Discussion...

Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS
through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant,
very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New
England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model
guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast
soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100
J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should
support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be
ruled out.

Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across
this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb
will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a
few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning
discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024

$$

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