Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 13 2024 15:59:05

ACUS01 KWNS 131559
SWODY1
SPC AC 131557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.

....Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.

...Moore.. 01/13/2024

$$

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