Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0059
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 13 2024 00:28:01

ACUS11 KWNS 130027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130027=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-130300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...Eastern South Carolina and
eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130027Z - 130300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of far
eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina
over the next 1 to 2 hours. No weather watch issuance is expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a band of convection
oriented from south-southwest to north-northeast from southern
Georgia to central North Carolina. This convection is located along
the northern edge of a weakly unstable airmass, where the RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE below 500 J/kg. In spite of the weak instability,
moisture advection will occur across the eastern Carolinas over the
next couple of hours, which will result in a gradually increase in
instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs in the eastern
Carolinas have very strong deep-layer shear, associated with the
eastern edge of a broad mid-level jet. For this reason, there will
be potential for weakly organized rotating storms. Although a weak
tornado or strong wind gust will be possible, the threat should
remain isolated as the upper-level system over the Northeast pulls
away from the region.

...Broyles/Goss.. 01/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!45margDv_2DlybChck5MCrIlFUJn3S_Jq5TwgqZPslu9eqmJS0FQADD4F98FxKEKzGPHWq7hN=
ZMYRujQ85RCHYcAgCM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32987960 33807852 34557718 35057642 35467626 35817655
            35927717 35697769 34877907 33278130 32628187 32228190
            31918151 32028085 32987960=20


=3D =3D =3D
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