Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0052
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 12 2024 12:15:30

ACUS11 KWNS 121215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121214=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Extreme southwest
TN...Extreme northeast LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 121214Z - 121345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will
continue through sunrise.

DISCUSSION...A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in
organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted
along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt
and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR
(KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing
sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful
shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to
support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this
convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and
extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will
also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be
limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though
some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection
remains somewhat elevated.=20=20

In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete
storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into
northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can
mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment
across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any
sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this
morning.

...Dean.. 01/12/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-9osYk9uggIBrdOS_I38pAjJ0vk2PObe4ze1MGCmwdhcQJ_D6YTZkHlTtlYoM-Oa1VccZRBgf=
bLNSPkHW_vOgVyz8Hs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989
            32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209
            33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093=20


=3D =3D =3D
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