Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0047
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 12 2024 05:45:27

ACUS11 KWNS 120545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120544=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

Valid 120544Z - 120745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the western half of
ww009 over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
vort advancing east across the TX South Plains. Leading edge of
large-scale support is spreading across north-central TX in
association with left exit region of midlevel jet. Over the last
hour or so, IR imagery suggests convection has gradually been
deepening along the front, from east of SEP-DFW-southeast of Sherman
TX. Lightning is now observed with this activity over Collin County
and further strengthening is expected along the wind shift over the
next few hours. Latest thinking is substantial increase in
convection should be noted along the advancing front across the
western portions of ww009 by 07z. While the frontal convection may
become more linear with time, very strong shear supports the
potential for supercells. Damaging winds are expected with this
convection along with some risk for tornadoes.

...Darrow.. 01/12/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!715dCsRLF2T2YC0MKRWF8yGRiEpIA4Z2CUShllm2FllY-ivjkkiZvcQJyxIDzIOm8rJhrvUBF=
DX_5FLcJhdceQRH6V8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33989640 35639230 33309230 31669639 33989640=20


=3D =3D =3D
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