Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 11 2024 09:22:23

ACUS48 KWNS 110922
SWOD48
SPC AC 110920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A deep remnant mid-level low, near James Bay by the beginning of the
period, may deepen some further while redeveloping northward, then
westward, into southern Hudson Bay by early next week, within an
elongating area of low mid-level heights across much of eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast.  This may linger into the
middle to latter portion of next week, when a new mid-level low may
form near Newfoundland and Labrador, associated with strong surface
cyclogenesis offshore of the northern U.S. Atlantic coast and
Canadian Maritimes.

It appears that this cyclogenesis will initiate in response to a
short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic, before
initially digging to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies,
downstream of mid-level ridging building inland of the Pacific
coast.  The track and evolution of this perturbation through
residual cyclonic flow across the interior through eastern U.S.
remains varied within the model output. However, it currently
appears that the initial surface wave development will remain weak,
along a stalled remnant frontal zone across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and east/northeast of the Florida Peninsula late next Monday
night through Tuesday morning.  This currently seems likely to
minimize the risk for organized severe thunderstorms.

...Kerr.. 01/11/2024

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