Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 11 2024 08:04:56

ACUS03 KWNS 110804
SWODY3
SPC AC 110803

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

....Discussion...
While the center of a broad, initially intense, surface cyclone is
generally forecast to weaken while migrating northeast of the Great
Lakes region during this period, models suggest that a remnant
mid-level circulation may begin to deepen while turning northward
toward James Bay.  In their wake, Arctic air, initially banked up
across the northern Great Plains into the Rockies, appears likely to
surge southeastward through much of the southern Great Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night.  This will
reinforce a preceding cold front, which is forecast to advance
offshore and away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling
across the southern Florida Peninsula through southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Coupled with low-level warming and moistening, dynamically driven
steepening of lapse rates above a cool/stable boundary layer may be
contributing to convection capable of producing lightning near
southeastern New England coastal areas early in the period.
Otherwise, some weak thunderstorm development will remain possible
along the stalling front, though this may remain mostly confined to
areas near and offshore of the southern Florida coastal waters.

...Kerr.. 01/11/2024

$$

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