Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 10 2024 12:48:50 ACUS01 KWNS 101248 SWODY1 SPC AC 101247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ...Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .