Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 10 2024 09:54:19 ACUS48 KWNS 100954 SWOD48 SPC AC 100952 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. ...Kerr.. 01/10/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .