Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0030
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 09 2024 15:49:07

ACUS11 KWNS 091546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091545=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-091745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...Portions of north FL...coastal/eastern GA...much of
SC...and extreme south-central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 091545Z - 091745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable
for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds over the next couple of
hours. Tornado Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection extends from northeast GA
to the FL Panhandle along/near a surface cold front. A powerful
upper cyclone is centered over the mid MS Valley this morning, with
associated 60-80+ kt southerly low-level jet rapidly advecting
moisture northward ahead of the line. Various recent RAP/NAM
forecast soundings across north FL into coastal/eastern GA and much
of SC suggest that it will take at least 62-63F surface dewpoints
amid modest daytime heating to aid weak boundary-layer
destabilization and the potential for surface-based thunderstorms.
Latest surface observations indicate that sufficient low-level
moisture is already in place as far north as central GA/SC.

Current expectations are that this continued low-level warm/moist
advection will likely support a severe threat as far north as parts
of upstate SC and towards Charlotte NC. Area VWPs ahead of the
ongoing QLCS show low-level flow quickly strengthening to 60-70+ kt
above 1 km, with ample low-level shear available to support updraft
rotation and embedded tornadic circulations within the line.
Severe/damaging downdraft winds of 60-75 mph also appear likely
given the strength of the low-level flow. With the severe potential
likely to increase across this region over the next few hours,
Tornado Watch issuance is likely.

...Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7bAIZTk7iNi1dZhlR0Q3hu3RO6gW5Wnoe9eK0wQDKmJbxi-s2Ufx-JESixo-VaMlsYr9EE8Sx=
i57zw2J2gnkmzInIPI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...

LAT...LON   29908244 31848219 32578194 33248219 34118244 35028094
            34778040 33478014 32807960 32018073 30918133 29738123
            29458216 29908244=20


=3D =3D =3D
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