Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 08 2024 19:46:17 AWUS01 KWNH 081944 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-090100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0002 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 PM EST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TX...Western and Central LA...Far Southwest MS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081940Z - 090100Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will gradually become more concentrated over the next several hours. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible heading through early this evening. DISCUSSION...Early afternoon GOES-East IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows increasingly concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting large areas of eastern TX out ahead of a cold front, with activity that is a bit more discrete but expanding in coverage across western and central LA. The convection is forming is response to very strong warm air advection and moisture transport surging up from the western Gulf of Mexico out ahead of a deepening upper trough/cyclone over the central/southern Plains. Area VWP data shows the low-level jet on the order of 50 to 70 kts aiming up across eastern TX and southwest LA, and this energy coupled with increasingly strong forcing aloft and accompanying shear profiles will favor additional organization and expansion of convection heading through the early evening hours. A warm front lifting northeast across the region will allow for the transport of a moderately buoyant airmass across much of southeast TX and gradually reaching southwest to south-central LA this evening. Locally enhanced forcing along the warm front itself will further support areas of locally concentrated convection including some occasional instances of cell-training where the activity becomes more aligned with the deeper layer mean flow. PWs are on the order of 1.25 to 1.5 inches and will continue to rise over the next several hours given the enhanced deep layer moisture transport. This coupled with the increasing instability trends should yield an increase in rainfall rates that should easily reach into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger and more organized cells. Expect some storm total amounts to locally reach 3 to 4 inches, and especially with any cell-training that occurs. This may result in some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding going through early this evening. The more urbanized locations will be most susceptible to seeing more notable runoff concerns. It should be noted that a more organized and significant threat of very heavy rainfall and flash flooding may begin to materialize later this evening for areas generally a little farther east, but including areas of south-central LA through southern MS. Will continue to monitor closely and issue additional MPDs accordingly. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ZrbG5TLi-HhUHuDcB5hAu2-lXuitYaP9V8Q9ASFXU1VWEEpsB0pF-F714t6xJuKVRET= UhM6wsnacfbOTUegTk5ZiYw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32639313 32549224 31919120 30879071 29889079=20 29429143 29569237 29789299 30029346 30719427=20 31439461 32169441 32549380=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .