Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0011
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 08 2024 11:28:43

ACUS11 KWNS 081128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081127=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-081730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Raton Mesa of northeast NM...far
western KS

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 081127Z - 081730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected
to begin between 13-15 UTC on a localized basis.  Surface gusts will
rapidly increase this morning (into the 35-60 mph range) and
coincide with more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates.  These
conditions will lead to substantially reduced visibilities and
result in blizzard conditions beginning during the late morning
(15-18 UTC).

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a powerful mid-level
shortwave trough moving east across the Sangre de Cristos early this
morning.  Deep-layer forcing for ascent will continue to overspread
the central High Plains as the column saturates early this morning.=20
Light to moderate snow will transition to localized heavy snow
(i.e., rates around 1 inch per hour) beginning in the 13-15 UTC
period according to the latest SREF and HREF model guidance.  Heavy
snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour will become widespread
during the 15-18 UTC period as both upslope flow strengthens south
of the Arkansas River and deep-layer ascent associated with the
cyclone intensifies.

Low-level flow is forecast to intensify markedly during the morning
with 250 m AGL flow increasing from less than 10 kt to 50 kt while
contributing to very strong gusts and substantially reduced
visibilities.  The strengthening of surface gusts into the 35-60 mph
range is expected to coincide with the onset of more widespread 1
inch per hour snowfall rates and result in blizzard conditions
during the 15-18 UTC period.

...Smith.. 01/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!60zS9sFRvPIMrevLyLH7xrQHd_FtpYkkfKIR-R8XPwbCa5z6wSv_H3zikRru4JH4QJjeayVVe=
_OQ_N50ZFoRuHCeh8w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38710125 38340135 37440205 37040272 36740375 36740440
            36970460 37230463 37630451 37800420 37730384 37760298
            38130244 38770186 38970153 38880133 38710125=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.