Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 07 2024 09:34:51

ACUS48 KWNS 070933
SWOD48
SPC AC 070932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate
northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range
models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging
within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will
be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging
across the Pacific Northwest.  One of these, emanating from the
northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the
Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter
portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend.

There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning
this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend
to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone.  It appears
at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing
environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe
storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions
of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region.  While the extent of
this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it
will remain less than with the early week system.

...Kerr.. 01/07/2024

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