Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jan 06 2024 19:58:56 ACUS01 KWNS 061958 SWODY1 SPC AC 061957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ...Bentley.. 01/06/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ....South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ....NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .