Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 06 2024 07:54:16

FOUS30 KWBC 060754
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Sat Jan 06 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024 - 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024

A pair of mid-level shortwaves should allow for diffluence aloft
near the East Coast.  Inflow of 50-60 kts at 850 hPa from the
southeast is expected off the Atlantic.  Low- to mid-level
frontogenesis is likely to do the heavy lifting as instability
will be quite low -- at or below 250 J/kg -- which should be able
to yield hourly rain totals of 0.5"+ at times, an idea supported
by the 00z HREF.  The signal for heavy rainfall exists, but the
guidance is not overly strong with the QPF signal as the system
overall should remain progressive.  Portions of this region
experienced heavy rainfall within the past week, with pockets
receiving 300%+ of their average weekly rainfall for this time of
the year, which is the main reason the Marginal Risk area has been
kept from continuity.  Overall, thought there was just enough
there for the Marginal Risk to carry forward, but some adjustments
were made based on newly available guidance QPF-wise and to better
account for the precipitation type expected with a little bit of
overlap into the expected snow area (in case the guidance edges
farther northwest on the expected rain/snow line as the system
moves through general southwest flow aloft downstream of a more
significant deep cyclone).=20
=20=20
Roth=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5pTdQ0wNtGVej6QgRh0h2mwyzR6D1fp2z_Q9cA1kqdHP=
NcwXIym-zYuvUbf3x17CtxOQ_jhuwJMEmXH8JIuMW2TDnz4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5pTdQ0wNtGVej6QgRh0h2mwyzR6D1fp2z_Q9cA1kqdHP=
NcwXIym-zYuvUbf3x17CtxOQ_jhuwJMEmXH8JIuMVMOPe-Y$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5pTdQ0wNtGVej6QgRh0h2mwyzR6D1fp2z_Q9cA1kqdHP=
NcwXIym-zYuvUbf3x17CtxOQ_jhuwJMEmXH8JIuMYAdZGmQ$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.