Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jan 06 2024 05:04:06 ACUS02 KWNS 060503 SWODY2 SPC AC 060501 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ....Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ...Kerr.. 01/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .