Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 05 2024 17:31:18 ACUS02 KWNS 051731 SWODY2 SPC AC 051729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ....Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ....Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ...Dean.. 01/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .