Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 05 2024 07:16:08

FOUS30 KWBC 050715
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EST Fri Jan 05 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 - 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024

....Gulf Coast and Southeast...=20=20=20=20
A strong and fast-moving system will track northeastward from
Texas to the Southeast by Saturday morning.  The result will be an
increasingly favorable divergence pattern aloft associated with
the shortwave itself, which will support deepening of a surface
low that will track across the Southeast near and ahead of the
shortwave. The low will take advantage of increasing Gulf moisture
along a coastal front/steering line to result in showers and
potentially organized thunderstorms. The storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall, as precipitable water values increase to as high
as 1.75".  Inflow at 850 hPa and effective bulk shear build to 50+
kts and some areas could see MU CAPE rise to 500+ J/kg.  Decent
low- to mid-level frontogenesis should also exist.  IVT into the
region mimics a small scale, but progressive, atmospheric river
which should lend itself to rainfall efficiency.  The ingredients
should allow for hourly rain totals to 2" and local amounts to 4".
 The fast forward speed of the storms potentially limits how much
rain any one area sees, so if organized convection forms,
mesocyclones will need to form or cell mergers would need to occur
to create any heavy rain related issues.  Soils all across the
Marginal Risk area are either drier or much drier than normal, so
the rivers and streams could take on some rainfall.  The result
will be any isolated flash flooding most likely occurring in
flood-sensitive urban and poor-drainage areas.  Changes were
noticeable this cycle and the Marginal Risk was constrained to
where 0.5"+ an hour totals and where decent probabilities of 2"+
existed for the 24 hour period on the 00z HREF guidance.=20

Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-k3-cDf77WK1Ex0t9jnsB2mSEH2TMxQhnlRIdBwqA1y3=
EX276e3ODkeyy5xmhKjZ_TYwdBiWDUU-r2ioURRrjv1ZsA0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-k3-cDf77WK1Ex0t9jnsB2mSEH2TMxQhnlRIdBwqA1y3=
EX276e3ODkeyy5xmhKjZ_TYwdBiWDUU-r2ioURRr8zqK6Ys$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-k3-cDf77WK1Ex0t9jnsB2mSEH2TMxQhnlRIdBwqA1y3=
EX276e3ODkeyy5xmhKjZ_TYwdBiWDUU-r2ioURRr42W7JpE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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