Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 05 2024 00:54:18

ACUS01 KWNS 050054
SWODY1
SPC AC 050052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight over
parts of southeast Texas including the Texas Coast.

....Discussion...
Sporadic lightning is noted this evening over southeast NM, where
cold temperatures aloft exist in proximity to the upper low. The
loss of diabatic heating is expected to further reduce thunderstorm
chances as the trough moves into western TX, though isolated flashes
cannot be ruled out with weak elevated instability present.

A greater probability of thunderstorms will develop late tonight
into Friday morning over southeast TX and much of the TX Coast.
Here, more robust theta-e advection will develop atop the cool
boundary layer, and as 850-mb winds increase to 40 kt out of the
south. Despite strong shear, little to no severe threat is forecast,
due to only weak elevated instability, and cool surface air over
land.

...Jewell.. 01/05/2024

$$

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