Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 05 2024 00:47:21 FOUS30 KWBC 050047 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 746 PM EST Thu Jan 04 2024 Day 1 Valid 1955Z Thu Jan 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. ....Middle Texas Coast... Per collaboration with WFO CRP, we have removed the Marginal Risk ERO from the Middle TX Coast. Latest HREF 1-3 hourly rainfall rate probabilities have come down at 12Z, with 1"/hr rates peaking at 20-25% over a small area along the coast between 10-12Z. At the same time, probs of at least 1" in 3 hours are between 50-60%, while probs of at least 2" in 3 hours is below 10%. So obviously rates are going to be a bit limitation, especially since the better (0.50-1.0"/hr) rates don't start until after 08Z. Not surprising, considering the latest FFG, the probability of 1-3 hourly QPF exceeding 1-3 hour FFG per the HREF is less than 5%. The latest relative soil moisture (RSM) analysis from NASA SPoRT would support keeping the outlook at less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 - 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ....2030Z Update... Deterministic QPF from WPC and the global models from the dayshift remained consistent with the previous set of guidance as a strong and fast moving system tracks northeastward from Texas to the Southeast U.S.. As a result...forecast reasoning remains similar and no significant changes were needed to the on-going ERO for Day 2. Bann =20 ....Gulf Coast and Southeast...=20=20=20 A strong and fast-moving system will track northeastward from Texas to the Southeast by Saturday morning. The result will be an increasingly favorable divergence pattern aloft associated with the shortwave itself, which will support deepening of a surface low that will track across the Southeast near and ahead of the shortwave. The low will take advantage of increasing Gulf moisture to result in a line of showers and storms that will from from the low center south to the Gulf. The storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, as precipitable water values increase to as high as 1.75". Inflow at 850 hPa and effective bulk shear build to 50+ kts and some areas could see MU CAPE rise to 500+ J/kg. Decent low- to mid-level frontogenesis should also exist. The ingredients should allow for hourly rain totals to 2" and local amounts to 4". The fast forward speed of the storms potentially limits how much rain any one area sees, so if an organized line forms, some mesoscale waves will need to form along it or some cell mergers would need to occur to create issues. Soils all across the Marginal Risk area are either drier or much drier than normal, so the rivers and streams could take on some rainfall.=20 The result will be any isolated flash flooding most likely occurring in flood-sensitive urban and poor-drainage areas.=20 Changes made to the risk area were predicated on the new guidance. =20 Roth Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024 - 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ....2030Z ERD... Largely maintained continuity with the previous outlook. The signal for heavy rainfall persisted but the agreement was not particularly strong in terms of QPF. As noted below...some portions of the outlook area have experienced heavy to excessive rainfall over the past couple of weeks...and still looks like enough dynamics and moisture will be in place to keep the Marginal Risk area in place without too many changes. Bann Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... A pair of mid-level shortwaves should allow for diffluence aloft near the East Coast. Down the Carolinas, instability is available near the coast along with precipitable water values of 1.25-1.5" in an environment with 1000-500 hPa thickness values in the 5500-5600 meter range to potentially lead to efficient heavy rainfall across the Carolinas within a moist atmosphere. Inflow of ~50 kts at 850 hPa is expected off the Atlantic. In the Carolinas, hourly rain totals of 1.5" are possible which would be problematic in urban areas. Low- to mid-level frontogenesis is likely to do the heavy lifting north of the Carolinas where instability will be near zero, which should be able to yield hourly rain totals of 0.5"+ at times. The signal for heavy rainfall exists, but the guidance could show more agreement and is not overly strong with the QPF signal as the system overall should remain progressive. Portions of this region experienced heavy rainfall within the past week, with pockets receiving 300%+ of their average weekly rainfall for this time of the year. Overall, thought there was enough there for the Marginal Risk to carry forward, but some adjustments were made due to the newly available guidance. Roth Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7YWNqAS63rpO7qR8oN7VElrO_APUT-8J2EWMKdveL97A= xNIU-O4n15y39l4kopsOKb-VKlpECzSw2-S3tbTXeXcnZdg$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7YWNqAS63rpO7qR8oN7VElrO_APUT-8J2EWMKdveL97A= xNIU-O4n15y39l4kopsOKb-VKlpECzSw2-S3tbTXvsOXLrc$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7YWNqAS63rpO7qR8oN7VElrO_APUT-8J2EWMKdveL97A= xNIU-O4n15y39l4kopsOKb-VKlpECzSw2-S3tbTXK4p-rx0$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .