Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 04 2024 07:01:32

FOUS30 KWBC 040701
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Thu Jan 04 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024

....A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS NEAR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST...

....Middle Texas Coast...
The guidance suggests some heavy rainfall mainly beyond 06z in and
near sections of the Middle TX coast between Houston and Refugio.=20
Some instability will be available (250-500 J/kg MU CAPE) and
precipitable water values will rise into the 1.25-1.5" range.=20
Given 1000-500 hPa thickness values around 5600 meters, the
atmosphere should be saturated, so the instability should allow
for rainfall efficiency.  Hourly rain totals of 1-2" are possible
here given the ingredients, which is borne out in the 00z HREF;=20
the highest signal is right at the end of the period with low but
existent chances of 2"+ in an hour.  Probabilities for 3" of rain
are low for this area, but they exist, which is an issue since
flash flood guidance here is ~2.5" in three hours.  Low-level
inflow (850 hPa) should be decent, close to 40 kts, which along
with the related effective bulk shear should try to organize
convection.  The biggest issue appears system progression as
locations don't have that long to rain heavily before the inflow
veers to southwest and moisture erodes.  However, rainfall has
been 150-300% of average along the Texas coast over the past seven
days.  Enough is there overall for a Marginal Risk, which was
added this cycle.

Roth



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eWBeQ_q8TsCc6T6UXdIff1X3XYdlOEl8qSX0EN4-8s9=
I3-iVC9e4mmrKp9fWhL1GT2P5CCgKK2XwgtgFNHf9I5Iwa4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eWBeQ_q8TsCc6T6UXdIff1X3XYdlOEl8qSX0EN4-8s9=
I3-iVC9e4mmrKp9fWhL1GT2P5CCgKK2XwgtgFNHfOHMhyzE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eWBeQ_q8TsCc6T6UXdIff1X3XYdlOEl8qSX0EN4-8s9=
I3-iVC9e4mmrKp9fWhL1GT2P5CCgKK2XwgtgFNHfWlCZNLc$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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