Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 03 2024 16:26:13 ACUS01 KWNS 031626 SWODY1 SPC AC 031624 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ....FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ....Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. ...Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .