Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 03 2024 09:58:11

ACUS48 KWNS 030957
SWOD48
SPC AC 030955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of
FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave
trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western
Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability
currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for
Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day
5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast
and much of the FL Peninsula.

Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day
6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper
trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually
ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage
occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich
low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance
suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present
ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast
states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday
night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both
supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the
15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts
of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest
guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance
of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection.

At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day
7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range
guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will
continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much
uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level
moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify
a 15% severe area on Tuesday.

...Gleason.. 01/03/2024

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