Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 02 2024 19:54:53

FOUS30 KWBC 021954
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EST Tue Jan 02 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 02 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....South Texas...
Areas of precipitation are expected across Texas in advance of a
mid-level shortwave trough expected to be centered over
southwestern Kansas by 12Z Friday Jan 5.  Meanwhile, surface-based
buoyancy and 60s F dewpoints are expected to reach the middle
Texas coast during that same timeframe.  The instability/moisture
should support deep convection, and the 12Z EC is most aggressive
with this convective potential (2 inch rainfall totals in the
09-12Z period - generally in the Corpus Christi to Victoria
areas).  Other models are less aggressive with deep convection
overall.  Uncertainty remains high enough to forego any
introduction of Marginal (5%) areal flash flood risk for this
outlook, but may be needed in later forecast cycles.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-SepCz-wC-BdllJQg3gTZzU1pkz2A4Qv5A_MhZEY679E=
zsfeF0L86B0i6ZJD67K02H8RNf3AK9lv-ncs2IQcXE5bRZo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-SepCz-wC-BdllJQg3gTZzU1pkz2A4Qv5A_MhZEY679E=
zsfeF0L86B0i6ZJD67K02H8RNf3AK9lv-ncs2IQcyFBO0U0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-SepCz-wC-BdllJQg3gTZzU1pkz2A4Qv5A_MhZEY679E=
zsfeF0L86B0i6ZJD67K02H8RNf3AK9lv-ncs2IQcphTYxH0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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