Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 02 2024 19:25:05

ACUS01 KWNS 021925
SWODY1
SPC AC 021923

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this
evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight
along the northern/central California coast.

....Discussion...
Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX
thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations.

...Grams.. 01/02/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/

....Synopsis...
Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress
eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early
Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA.  A modifying air
mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico,
though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the
surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX
coast.  There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the
near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will
subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe
threat over land is too low to add any probabilities.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone
of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will
continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into
tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream
trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates
spread inland.

$$

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