Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 02 2024 16:16:33

ACUS01 KWNS 021616
SWODY1
SPC AC 021615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas this afternoon
and tonight into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.  Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along
the northern/central California coast.

....Synopsis...
Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress
eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early
Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA.  A modifying air
mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico,
though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the
surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX
coast.  There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the
near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will
subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe
threat over land is too low to add any probabilities.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone
of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will
continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into
tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream
trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates
spread inland.

...Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/02/2024

$$

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