Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 01 2024 22:34:35

FOUS30 KWBC 012234
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EST Mon Jan 01 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 02 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec/Kleebauer/Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Progressive shortwave will continue to move through the
south-central US with an area of difluent ascent focused over
central and east TX by Tuesday evening, carrying into LA by the
end of the period. Marginal instability profiles are forecast with
the max deterministic MUCAPE reaching near 500 J/kg, fading
quickly after 00z Wednesday. The limited instability caps the
potential with regards to thunderstorm coverage and intensity as
rates settle at or below 25% for even reaching 1"/hr at any point
within the time frame of impact based on the latest HREF
probability fields. Totals on the order of 0.75-1.25" with a max
of up to 1.75" in the period will be the most likely amounts
across portions of the TX Gulf Coast up through east TX and
central/western LA. Considering the antecedent dryness over much
of the area of interest, as well as the progressive nature of the
disturbance, have opted to maintain a void in any risk areas, but
will continue to monitor short term convective trends to see if
any MRGL addition(s) are needed.

Out west, a similar evolution to the previous few moisture surges
on the leading edge of broad lows off the PAC coast will allow for
1-2" of rainfall across portions of northern CA with lesser totals
to the south. IVT signatures are outside the historical values we
typically see for higher impact events within the above area. Will
maintain the void in any risk areas for that location as well with
very little threat of an upgrade at this juncture.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024 - 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JHtPEHxq22_8TIIL_aGdgVm8jGu-4BnYPXwJaHaEKWJ=
LjeTsZa34N0cSbas5hSSAyohgMBC5EQlQZM4TnpYuyXjcYw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JHtPEHxq22_8TIIL_aGdgVm8jGu-4BnYPXwJaHaEKWJ=
LjeTsZa34N0cSbas5hSSAyohgMBC5EQlQZM4TnpYlXmxSsY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9JHtPEHxq22_8TIIL_aGdgVm8jGu-4BnYPXwJaHaEKWJ=
LjeTsZa34N0cSbas5hSSAyohgMBC5EQlQZM4TnpY_GQNlok$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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