Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 29 2023 00:36:30

ACUS01 KWNS 290036
SWODY1
SPC AC 290034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through
tonight.

....01Z Update...
A large, vigorous short wave trough has emerged from a strong, zonal
mid/upper jet extending across the southern mid-latitude western
through central Pacific.  However, models suggest that this feature,
and an associated surface cyclone, will slowly begin to weaken while
gradually progressing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific,
toward the Pacific coast, through 12Z Friday.

With the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling forecast to
remain well offshore through the remainder of this period (and
generally not forecast to reach Oregon/California coastal areas
until tomorrow evening), appreciable boundary-layer destabilization
appears unlikely.  Models do suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection and moistening may contribute to an inland spreading
band of weak elevated destabilization across northern California and
southern Oregon coastal areas around or after 29/08-10Z.  However, a
combination of weak mid/upper forcing for upward vertical motion and
relatively warm layers aloft appear to preclude an appreciable risk
for convection capable of producing lightning.

...Kerr.. 12/29/2023

$$

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