Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 28 2023 15:46:09

FOUS30 KWBC 281544
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1043 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Dec 28 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 29 2023


The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 29 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 30 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

An atmospheric river will ensue Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning across portions of southwest Oregon and northern
California before waning in intensity and shifting focus
southward. The latest guidance has areal averages of 1 to 3 inches
and the NBM neighborhood probability of at least 2" is fairly
robust across the northern CA coast (70+%), with the highest
totals generally between Eureka and San Francisco. The risk for
local flooding concerns will remain elevated for this part of the
country so the Marginal Risk area remains in effect for this
period.

Campbell






Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 30 2023 - 12Z Sun Dec 31 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6vQdY6orFsX5qw5p2DpJ3k7Ag99kwW2h5HqFmaVzTXsW=
jzwgwga_5fzcCBYuJSoOzi2GomU4HEjv8UOaAUlowSqKb6Q$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6vQdY6orFsX5qw5p2DpJ3k7Ag99kwW2h5HqFmaVzTXsW=
jzwgwga_5fzcCBYuJSoOzi2GomU4HEjv8UOaAUlo2rVoZeg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6vQdY6orFsX5qw5p2DpJ3k7Ag99kwW2h5HqFmaVzTXsW=
jzwgwga_5fzcCBYuJSoOzi2GomU4HEjv8UOaAUlo6ShRU2w$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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