Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 28 2023 09:15:45

ACUS48 KWNS 280914
SWOD48
SPC AC 280913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A more progressive upper-level pattern will emerge during the Day
4-8 period. A series of upper shortwave troughs will move through
southern-stream flow across the southern tier of the U.S. during
this time. The first shortwave will move across the southern Plains
to the Southeast on Days 4-5/Sun-Mon. In response, a surface low
will develop over Texas, moving east over the northern Gulf or very
near the LA/MS/AL coast through Monday. Modest low-level moisture
may return as far north as the TX coast eastward. However, given the
forecast track of the low being very near the Gulf coast, or over
the northern Gulf waters, better quality moisture is expected to
remain further south, limiting severe potential inland. A cold front
will dive southeast across the Gulf on Day 5/Mon. Strong surface
high pressure in the wake of this system will develop over the
Plains to the southeastern U.S. for much of the rest of the period,
resulting a dry and stable conditions.

Another shortwave may move across the same general area (southern
Plains to Southeast) late in the period around Day 7/Wed or Day
8/Thu. Another surface low could then track across the Gulf, though
medium-range guidance varies considerably in this scenario.
Nevertheless, most guidance suggests any low that develops will
likely remain offshore, limiting severe potential.

...Leitman.. 12/28/2023

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