Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 26 2023 12:27:46

ACUS01 KWNS 261226
SWODY1
SPC AC 261224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A slowly progressive pattern will persist in mid/upper levels,
dominated over the CONUS by a large synoptic cyclone now centered
over the eastern KS/NE border region.  Through 12Z tomorrow, the
500-mb low is forecast to loop cycloidally along a net eastward
track to northern MO, while a series of shortwave troughs and
vorticity maxima orbit the gyre.  The already-occluded surface low
-- analyzed at 11Z just east of HSI, will become increasingly
stacked under the mid/upper center.  The related occluded/cold front
was analyzed from the low across southeastern SD, southern MN,
southern Lake Michigan, central/eastern IN, eastern parts of KY/TN,
western GA, and the eastern Gulf.  Gradual frontolysis is expected
with this boundary as it moves slowly eastward toward the southern
Atlantic Coast and Tidewater region.  The southern part will cross
FL today, moving offshore from FL by the 00-03Z time frame.

A broad, prefrontal conveyor of low-level warm advection and
moisture transport will continue.  Through tonight, the bulk of
thunderstorm coverage, and the strongest activity, should be over
Atlantic waters, where sea-air fluxes will support greatest inflow-
layer theta-e.  However, weak buoyancy may deepen enough to support
sporadic lightning in convective clusters within the broader precip
shield over land.  Lack of greater low-level instability and shear
should preclude an organized severe threat.

...Edwards.. 12/26/2023

$$

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